Data for the model is no longer being updated as of January 1, 2021.

Welcome to the COVID-19 Vaccine Predictor

Building on recommendations from leading experts in governments, academia, and industry, the Center for Global Development and Ariadne Labs have created a tool to estimate vaccine success in a variety of scenarios. By giving inputs on timelines and the estimated probability of success for different vaccine types, our tool weighs the importance of factors like funding, global manufacturing capacity, and more to provide estimates of when a vaccine could be approved and manufactured at scale.

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